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A KFF Health News analysis found that a modeled 100-year flood could put at least 2 feet of water in 100 U.S. nursing homes. New Richland Care Center in Minnesota, which has flooded three times in 16 years, was evacuated in September after rising water entered the building. The analysis estimates flood exposure; it does not establish that every facility will flood or specify when.
A KFF Health News analysis identified 100 U.S. nursing homes where a modeled 100-year flood could bring at least 2 feet of water to buildings, a level that could endanger residents and disrupt care. In September, staff evacuated all 36 residents from New Richland Care Center in Minnesota after floodwater entered the facility, illustrating how quickly that risk can become an emergency.
At New Richland Care Center, water entered through the front door shortly before sunrise on Sept. 19. Administrator Robert Johannsen said staff moved residents through about 4 inches of water to buses. The last three residents were on hospital beds as water rose, he said; firefighters and high school football team volunteers pushed the beds across the street. Johannsen said water later flowed about 2½ feet deep through hallways. The government-run facility is now shuttered, according to the report.
The center sits about 100 yards from a drainage ditch and has flooded three times in 16 years. The National Weather Service described the September storm as large but far from historic, the report said. New Richland is one of the facilities flagged by KFF Health News using peer-reviewed flood hazard mapping provided by Fathom, a U.K.-based flood modeling company. For each of the 100 homes, the data predicted at least 2 feet of flooding in a 100-year event.
A 100-year flood has a 1% chance in any given year; that description does not mean such a flood occurs only once every century. KFF Health News said the mapping is generally considered more current than Federal Emergency Management Agency flood maps, which can be outdated and may not account for a changing climate. The analysis estimates hazard, rather than predicting exactly when a flood will happen at any particular home.
Flooding Threatens Resident Care
Flooding can force nursing homes to evacuate people who may be medically frail, cognitively impaired, or unable to move without assistance. Yet staying can also expose residents to rising water and interrupt essential daily care. Both evacuation and sheltering in place carry risks, and the right response can depend on how quickly water rises, available transport, and residents’ medical needs.
The report says the United States has nearly 15,000 nursing homes housing more than 1.2 million people. A flood may affect more than the building itself: care routines, medications, equipment, staffing, and residents’ continuity of care can all be disrupted. The 100 sites identified by the analysis warrant attention because the modeled depth could make facilities difficult to operate safely during a severe flood.
Researchers have documented health consequences associated with disaster evacuations. A 2011 peer-reviewed study co-written by geriatrician David Dosa found 277 more nursing home resident deaths than expected cumulatively in regions within 30 days of three Gulf hurricanes, following more than 270 recorded nursing home evacuations. The study suggested a significant association with mortality and morbidity; the figures do not show that evacuation alone caused each death.
Lessons From Past Evacuations
Nursing homes have faced difficult disaster decisions for decades. After Hurricane Katrina in 2005, dozens of people died in facilities that stayed through flooding after levees broke. Dosa said the industry shifted toward evacuations after Katrina, but evacuations have also brought harm. He described the choice as a high-stakes one for older adults.
A separate study published in 2024 found a 16% greater chance of emergency room visits among residents of Florida assisted living facilities evacuated before Hurricane Irma in 2017. Assisted living residents generally require less care than nursing home residents, so the result should not be treated as a direct estimate for nursing homes.
Some nursing homes were built near coastlines or waterways in the 1970s, before climate change was a widespread planning concern, Dosa told KFF Health News. Climate scientist Drew Gronewold said storms are drenching areas that were once considered lower risk, while some regions face less frequent but more powerful storms. These statements describe broader risks; the analysis does not attribute the New Richland flooding to climate change.
““There was at least 2½ feet of water flowing down the hallways.””
— Robert Johannsen, New Richland Care Center administrator
Limits of the Flood Estimates
The supplied material does not list the 100 facilities, explain how the analysis ranks them, or provide individual flood probabilities beyond the modeled 100-year event. A modeled 1% annual chance is not a timetable: flooding could occur more than once in a century or not during that period. The analysis does not say that every identified home will flood, nor does it establish when any site might be affected.
The source material also does not say when New Richland Care Center will reopen, whether it will be repaired or replaced, or where residents will receive care over the longer term. It identifies facilities in several states that flooded in recent years, but the supplied excerpt ends before giving further details. The precise damage and longer-term consequences for the Minnesota center remain unclear.
Planning for the Next Flood
The report frames the risk as a challenge for nursing homes and the communities responsible for disaster planning: facilities must weigh the hazards of rising water against the health risks of moving residents. The mapping can help identify places that may need closer review, but the supplied material does not describe a federal response, new rules, or a required action plan for the 100 sites.
For New Richland, the next developments include the facility’s status and the arrangements for affected residents. For the broader group, additional detail on site-specific safeguards, evacuation plans, and local flood preparation would clarify how operators and public agencies are responding. No such timeline or response was provided in the source material.
Key Questions
What does the analysis say about the 100 nursing homes?
It says Fathom’s flood data predicts that a 100-year flood event could bring at least 2 feet of water to each of the 100 buildings.
Does a 100-year flood happen only once every 100 years?
No. It refers to a flood event with a 1% chance in any given year. Such an event can happen more than once within a century.
What happened at the Minnesota care center?
Staff evacuated all 36 residents from New Richland Care Center on Sept. 19 after floodwater entered the building. The center is now shuttered, according to the report.
Does the report show that every listed nursing home will flood?
No. The analysis identifies modeled flood exposure; it does not predict that each facility will flood or say when one might be affected.
Why can evacuation be dangerous for nursing home residents?
Residents may rely on continuous medical care and assistance with movement. The report cites studies linking disaster evacuations with adverse health outcomes, while also describing the dangers of remaining in a flooded facility.
Source: rss
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